Federal Reserve
Facts and forecasts stay separate on this page. Nothing here is combined into one number.
Observed · FRED3.88%Effective federal funds rate · Oct 21, 2026 · daily
Apr 25, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026 · daily
Later
Fed decision, December 2026Kalshi 46d left · Polymarket 47d leftHike 25bps 72% 24h 0.0 ppKalshi · 2 sources · Fed decision, January 2027Kalshi 95d left · Polymarket 96d leftFed maintains rate 64% 24h +4.0 ppKalshi · 2 sources · Fed decision, March 2027144d leftHike 25bps 53% 24h 0.0 ppKalshi · Fed decision, April 2027186d leftHike 25bps 51% 24h 0.0 ppKalshi · Fed decision, June 2027228d leftFed maintains rate 62% 24h 0.0 ppKalshi · Fed decision, July 2027277d leftFed maintains rate 73% 24h -4.0 ppKalshi · Fed decision, September 2027326d leftFed maintains rate 85% 24h 0.0 ppKalshi · Fed decision, October 2027368d leftFed maintains rate 79% 24h +2.0 ppKalshi · Fed decision, December 2027410d leftFed maintains rate 58% 24h 0.0 ppKalshi · Fed decision, January 2028459d leftFed maintains rate 62% 24h 0.0 ppKalshi ·Track record
Fed decision, September 2026
KalshiSettled as Hike 25bps · Sep 16, 2026PolymarketSettled as 25 bps increase · Sep 16, 2026Fed decision, July 2026
KalshiSettled as Fed maintains rate · Jul 29, 2026PolymarketSettled as No change · Jul 29, 2026Fed decision, June 2026
KalshiSettled as Fed maintains rate · Jun 17, 2026PolymarketSettled as No change · Jun 17, 2026Fed decision, April 2026
KalshiSettled as Fed maintains rate · Apr 29, 2026PolymarketSettled as No change · Apr 29, 2026Fed decision, March 2026
KalshiSettled as Fed maintains rate · Mar 18, 2026PolymarketSettled as No change · Mar 18, 2026Fed decision, January 2026
KalshiSettled as Fed maintains rate · Jan 28, 2026PolymarketSettled as No change · Jan 28, 2026Fed decision, December 2025
KalshiSettled as Cut 25bps · Dec 10, 2025PolymarketSettled as 25 bps decrease · Dec 10, 2025Fed decision, October 2025
KalshiSettled as Cut 25bps · Oct 29, 2025PolymarketSettled as 25 bps decrease · Oct 29, 2025Fed decision, September 2025
KalshiSettled as Cut 25bps · Sep 17, 2025PolymarketSettled as 25 bps decrease · Sep 17, 2025Fed decision, July 2025
KalshiSettled as Fed maintains rate · Jul 30, 2025PolymarketSettled as No change · Jul 30, 2025Fed decision, June 2025
KalshiSettled as No change · Jun 18, 2025PolymarketSettled as No change · Jun 18, 2025Fed decision, May 2025
KalshiSettled as No change · May 7, 2025PolymarketSettled as No change · May 7, 2025Past settled state points for this subject. Each line is one contract: the price it had on the outcome that happened, at its last stored reading before close, and its realized outcome. Contracts are listed separately and not combined. Readings before close are stored from Sep 25, 2026; a line without a number shows the result only.