Fed decision, January 2027
2 sources, compared outcome by outcome. Kalshi 95d left · Polymarket 96d left. Widest gap: Cut 25bps, 7.9 points. Not combined.
Sources
| Outcome | Kalshi · 24h +4.0 pp · Fed maintains rate · 95d left | Polymarket · 24h -0.5 pp · No change · 96d left |
|---|---|---|
| Maintain | 64%Fed maintains rate | 67.5%No change |
| Hike 25bps | 31%Hike 25bps | 28.5%25 bps increase |
| Hike >25bps | 5%Hike >25bps | 1.3%50+ bps increase |
| Cut 25bps | 9%Cut 25bps | 1.1%25 bps decrease |
| Cut >25bps | 1%Cut >25bps | — |
Each cell is that source's own price for this outcome. A dash means the source does not list it. Figures are not combined.
Observed
3.88%Effective federal funds rate · Oct 21, 2026 · daily · FRED ·
A public series for this subject. Not an implied probability, and not combined with the rows above.
Cite
Fed decision, January 2027. Maintain: Kalshi 64% · Polymarket 67.5% — 3.5 points apart. Hike 25bps: Kalshi 31% · Polymarket 28.5% — 2.5 points apart. Hike >25bps: Kalshi 5% · Polymarket 1.3% — 3.7 points apart. Cut 25bps: Kalshi 9% · Polymarket 1.1% — 7.9 points apart. Cut >25bps: Kalshi 1% · Polymarket —. The gap is shown, not resolved. Kalshi 95d left. Polymarket 96d left. Public market data. Not investment advice.