Fed decision, October 2026
2 sources, compared outcome by outcome. Kalshi 4d left · Polymarket 5d left. Widest gap: Maintain, 1.5 points. Not combined.
Sources
| Outcome | Kalshi · 24h -2.0 pp · Fed maintains rate · 4d left | Polymarket · 24h — · 5d left |
|---|---|---|
| Maintain | 92%Fed maintains rate | 93.5%No change |
| Hike 25bps | 8%Hike 25bps | 6.5%25 bps increase |
| Hike >25bps | 1%Hike >25bps | — |
| Cut 25bps | 1%Cut 25bps | — |
| Cut >25bps | 1%Cut >25bps | — |
Each cell is that source's own price for this outcome. A dash means the source does not list it. Figures are not combined.
Observed
3.88%Effective federal funds rate · Oct 21, 2026 · daily · FRED ·
A public series for this subject. Not an implied probability, and not combined with the rows above.
Cite
Fed decision, October 2026. Maintain: Kalshi 92% · Polymarket 93.5% — 1.5 points apart. Hike 25bps: Kalshi 8% · Polymarket 6.5% — 1.5 points apart. Hike >25bps: Kalshi 1% · Polymarket —. Cut 25bps: Kalshi 1% · Polymarket —. Cut >25bps: Kalshi 1% · Polymarket —. The gap is shown, not resolved. Kalshi 4d left. Polymarket 5d left. Public market data. Not investment advice.