Fed decision, December 2026
2 sources, compared outcome by outcome. Kalshi 46d left · Polymarket 47d left. Widest gap: Hike 25bps, 2 points. Not combined.
Sources
| Outcome | Kalshi · 24h 0.0 pp · Hike 25bps · 46d left | Polymarket · 24h +1.0 pp · 25 bps increase · 47d left |
|---|---|---|
| Maintain | 23%Fed maintains rate | 22.5%No change |
| Hike 25bps | 72%Hike 25bps | 74%25 bps increase |
| Hike >25bps | 5%Hike >25bps | 3%50+ bps increase |
| Cut 25bps | 1%Cut 25bps | — |
| Cut >25bps | 1%Cut >25bps | — |
Each cell is that source's own price for this outcome. A dash means the source does not list it. Figures are not combined.
Observed
3.88%Effective federal funds rate · Oct 21, 2026 · daily · FRED ·
A public series for this subject. Not an implied probability, and not combined with the rows above.
Cite
Fed decision, December 2026. Maintain: Kalshi 23% · Polymarket 22.5% — 0.5 points apart. Hike 25bps: Kalshi 72% · Polymarket 74% — 2 points apart. Hike >25bps: Kalshi 5% · Polymarket 3% — 2 points apart. Cut 25bps: Kalshi 1% · Polymarket —. Cut >25bps: Kalshi 1% · Polymarket —. The gap is shown, not resolved. Kalshi 46d left. Polymarket 47d left. Public market data. Not investment advice.