Fed decision, March 2027
Kalshi: 53% for Hike 25bps. 144d left.
Source
| Outcome | Kalshi · 24h -1.0 pp · Hike 25bps · 144d left |
|---|---|
| Maintain | 35%Fed maintains rate |
| Hike 25bps | 53%Hike 25bps |
| Hike >25bps | 1%Hike >25bps |
| Cut 25bps | 35%Cut 25bps |
| Cut >25bps | 1%Cut >25bps |
Each cell is that source's own price for this outcome.
Observed
3.88%Effective federal funds rate · Oct 21, 2026 · daily · FRED ·
A public series for this subject. Not an implied probability, and not combined with the rows above.
Cite
Fed decision, March 2027. Kalshi 53% for Hike 25bps, 144d left. Maintain 35%. Hike >25bps 1%. Cut 25bps 35%. Cut >25bps 1%. Each cell is that source's own price for this outcome. Public market data. Not investment advice.