No observed level.
US federal elections
Facts and forecasts stay separate on this page. Nothing here is combined into one number.
Later
US House control, 2026 electionPolymarket 11d left · Nov 4, 2026 · Kalshi 100d left · Feb 1, 2027Democratic Party 91.5% 24h -1.0 ppPolymarket · 2 sources · 2028 US presidential election winnerKalshi 1110d left · Nov 7, 2029 · Polymarket 746d left · Nov 8, 2028J.D. Vance 21% 24h 0.0 ppKalshi · 2 sources · 2028 US presidential election, winning partyPolymarket 746d left · Nov 8, 2028 · Kalshi 1110d left · Nov 7, 2029Democratic 65.5% 24h +0.5 ppPolymarket · 2 sources · 2032 US presidential election, winning party2566d left · Nov 2, 2033Republican party 53% 24h +6.0 ppKalshi ·Track record
US House control, 2024 election
KalshiSettled as Republicans · Feb 1, 2025PolymarketSettled as Republican · Nov 5, 2024US Senate control, 2024 election
KalshiSettled as Republicans · Feb 1, 2025PolymarketSettled as Republicans · Nov 4, 2024Past settled state points for this subject. Each line is one contract: the price it had on the outcome that happened, at its last stored reading before close, and its realized outcome. Contracts are listed separately and not combined. Readings before close are stored from Sep 25, 2026; a line without a number shows the result only.