ECB decision, October 2026
2 sources, compared outcome by outcome. Kalshi 5d left · Polymarket 6d left. Widest gap: Maintain, 0.1 points. Not combined.
Sources
| Outcome | Kalshi · 24h +1.0 pp · Maintain current rate · 5d left | Polymarket · 24h +1.0 pp · No change · 6d left |
|---|---|---|
| Maintain | 98%Maintain current rate | 97.9%No change |
| Hike 25bps | 2%Hike 1-25bps | 1.9%25 bps increase |
| Hike >25bps | 1%Hike more than 25bps | — |
| Cut 25bps | 1%Cut 1-25bps | — |
| Cut >25bps | 1%Cut more than 25bps | — |
Each cell is that source's own price for this outcome. A dash means the source does not list it. Figures are not combined.
Observed
2.50%ECB deposit facility rate · Oct 23, 2026 · daily · FRED ·
A public series for this subject. Not an implied probability, and not combined with the rows above.
Cite
ECB decision, October 2026. Maintain: Kalshi 98% · Polymarket 97.9% — 0.1 points apart. Hike 25bps: Kalshi 2% · Polymarket 1.9% — 0.1 points apart. Hike >25bps: Kalshi 1% · Polymarket —. Cut 25bps: Kalshi 1% · Polymarket —. Cut >25bps: Kalshi 1% · Polymarket —. The gap is shown, not resolved. Kalshi 5d left. Polymarket 6d left. Public market data. Not investment advice.