ECB decision, December 2026
2 sources, compared outcome by outcome. Widest gap: Hike 25bps, 3.5 points. Not combined.
Sources
| Outcome | Kalshi · 24h 0.0 pp · Hike 1-25bps · 55d left | Polymarket · 24h -5.0 pp · 25 bps increase · 55d left |
|---|---|---|
| Maintain | 20%Maintain current rate | 21%No change |
| Hike 25bps | 79%Hike 1-25bps | 75.5%25 bps increase |
| Hike >25bps | 1%Hike more than 25bps | 1.3%50+ bps increase |
| Cut 25bps | 1%Cut 1-25bps | 1.3%25 bps decrease |
| Cut >25bps | 1%Cut more than 25bps | 1.2%50+ bps decrease |
Each cell is that source's own price for this outcome. A dash means the source does not list it. Figures are not combined.
Observed
2.50%ECB deposit facility rate · Oct 23, 2026 · daily · FRED ·
A public series for this subject. Not an implied probability, and not combined with the rows above.
Cite
ECB decision, December 2026. Maintain: Kalshi 20% · Polymarket 21% — 1 points apart. Hike 25bps: Kalshi 79% · Polymarket 75.5% — 3.5 points apart. Hike >25bps: Kalshi 1% · Polymarket 1.3% — 0.3 points apart. Cut 25bps: Kalshi 1% · Polymarket 1.3% — 0.3 points apart. Cut >25bps: Kalshi 1% · Polymarket 1.2% — 0.2 points apart. The gap is shown, not resolved. 55d left. Public market data. Not investment advice.