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Contracts tracked for the listed subjects. Each row is the lead contract for one occurrence at one source; when that occurrence has more contracts, the row says 1 of N, each in its own wording. This is evidence, not the next-rewrite shortlist on the home page.
6 on this page.
Fed Decision in October?
PolymarketNo change 93.5%25 bps increase 5.5%
Fed Decision in December?
Polymarket25 bps increase 71.5%No change 24% · 50+ bps increase 2.9%
Fed Decision in January?
PolymarketNo change 67.5%25 bps increase 27.5% · 50+ bps increase 1.3%
ECB Interest Rates: October 2026
PolymarketNo change 96.9%25 bps increase 3.2%
ECB Interest Rates: December 2026
Polymarket25 bps increase 80.5%No change 15% · 25 bps decrease 1.6% · 50+ bps increase 1.6% · 50+ bps decrease 1.3%
October Inflation US - Annual
Polymarket3.7% 86.5%3.8% 7% · 3.9% 4.2% · 4.0% 2.2%