Which party will control the U.S. Senate after the 2022 election?

• Democratic100%
• Republican0%

Path

Result

Awaiting settlement. Trading has stopped; that is not a realized outcome.

Reading

On Polymarket, “Which party will control the U.S. Senate after the 2022 election?” is awaiting settlement. Trading has stopped; that is not a realized outcome. The last implied probability for Democratic was about 100%. Public market data. Not investment advice.

Rules

Official rules are on Polymarket. This page restates public source text. The 2022 United States Senate elections will be held on November 8, 2022, with 34 of the 100 seats in the Senate being contested. This market will resolve to the party which is affiliated with more than half of the voting Senate members after the 2022 Senate elections, or if the Vice President has the same party affiliation, half or more of the voting Senate members. A Senator's party affiliation is determined by whichever party’s caucus he or she is a member of; namely at the time of the writing of this question, Bernie Sanders and Angus King are considered to be affiliated with the Democratic Party. Determination of which party controls the Senate after the 2022 U.S. Senate elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2022 election results.